Recession Of US Came To End but no end to Unemployment
The worst US recession since the Great Depression has ended, but a weak labor market may slow economic growth, according to a survey released on Monday.
The survey of 44 professional forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics found that 80 percent of economists surveyed believed that the economy was growing again, after four straight quarters of declines, reports Reuters.
The recession gripping the United States for nearly two years is over, but economic growth may be held in check by high unemployment, a poll of business economists showed today.
“The Great Recession is over,” according to the consensus macroeconomic outlook of a panel of 44 professional forecasters of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).
“The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines,” NABE president-elect Lynn Reaser said.
More than 80 per cent of economists surveyed believed that an expansion has begun, according to poll conducted during the September 2-24 period.
The study also found that the more-than-three-year downturn in the US housing market, epicentre of financial turmoil that slammed the brakes on growth, was very close to ending, with an upturn expected next year, said Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
According to the survey, the key areas of concern were the increasing federal debt and unemployment rates, “expected to remain very high through next year”.
The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 10 per cent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 per cent by the end of 2010 while inflation is expected to remain contained throughout next year.
“The great recession is over,” said the panel, according to AFP.
The economists said that the economic recovery was likely to be “moderate”, as unemployment was expected to remain “very high” in 2010.
The survey, conducted in September, predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010, and decrease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.
“The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the US economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation,” the survey said, according to AFP.
The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s, reports Reuters.
